Seven of 10 highest risk countries now in Africa

The Terrorism Intensity Index has indicated that violence in Africa’s terrorist hotspots is getting worse and the risk of attacks is rising in many countries across the region, including some previously considered safe.

Published by Verisk Maplecroft, the quarterly ranking of 198 countries shows that sub-Saharan Africa is now home to seven of the world’s 10 riskiest locations, making it the worst performing region globally. With a further nine countries witnessing significant increases in the frequency and severity of attacks, the findings suggest that the reach and effectiveness of terrorist groups in Africa is growing.

Data shows that the last quarter alone saw a 13 per cent rise in terrorist incidents across the continent compared to the previous period. The trajectory of these trends should be a major cause of concern for the region’s governments, as well as the mining and energy companies operating there.

Additionally, four of the five countries seeing the biggest falls in the Terrorism Intensity Index were in Africa. Burundi saw the greatest increase in risk, dropping 37 places to become the 27th riskiest nation globally. Côte d'Ivoire (30th) and Tanzania (32nd) witnessed similar falls, while Chad, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique and Senegal also saw their scores significantly worsen. The only African countries to register improvements in the index were Rwanda and Central African Republic.

With the worst possible score of 0.00 out of 10.00, Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Mali, Somalia and Syria are tied as the highest risk countries globally, but are closely followed by Cameroon (ranked 6th), Mozambique (7th), Niger (8th), DR Congo (9th) and Iraq (10th). Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria, is ranked 11th. All are categorised as ‘extreme risk’ in the index.

Alexandre Raymakers, Senior Africa Analyst, said: “Terrorist groups operating throughout sub-Saharan Africa are unlikely to lose their momentum in the next year. As the economic fallout from Covid-19 empties government coffers, governments will struggle to implement the comprehensive counter terrorism strategies required to contain these security threats.”