Sub-Saharan Africa emerges as global epicentre of terrorism

The 2022 Global Terrorism Index has shown that the impact of terrorism continues to decline, despite an increase in attacks.

Last year, deaths from terrorism fell by 1.2 per cent to 7,142, while attacks rose by 17 per cent, highlighting that terrorism is becoming less lethal. Furthermore, in the best result since 2007, two thirds of countries recorded no attacks or deaths from terrorism, with 86 countries recording an improvement on their GTI score.

The 2022 Global Terrorism Index highlights that terrorism remains a serious threat, with Sub-Saharan Africa accounting for nearly half of total global deaths from terrorism. Four of the ten countries with the largest increases in deaths from terrorism were also in sub-Saharan Africa: Niger, Mali, the DRC and Burkina Faso. Deaths from terrorism have risen ten times in the Sahel region since 2007.

The Index shows that terrorism is becoming increasingly concentrated, contracting into countries already suffering from violent conflict. Conflict zones accounted for 97 per cent of all deaths. The ten countries most affected by terrorism are all in conflict zones. The largest increase in terrorism was in Myanmar, where deaths rose 23 times from 24 to 521, followed by Niger, where deaths doubled, increasing from 257 in 2020 to 588 in 2021.

Given recent developments, the index notes that Ukraine is likely to see an uplift in terrorism.

Steve Killelea, founder and executive chairman of the IEP, said: “Terrorism is becoming more centred in conflict zones, underpinned by weak governments and political instability, while in Europe and the US politically motivated terrorism has overtaken religiously motivated attacks. As conflict in the Ukraine dominates global attention it is crucial that the global fight against terrorism is not sidelined. Terrorist activity in the Sahel is increasing substantially, and is driven by Islamic militias.”
 
“The decline of terrorism in the West coincided with the Covid-19 pandemic. Restrictions on freedom of movement, travel and the immediate threat to personal health may explain some of the fall. Once the emergency measures are removed there is the possibility of an uptick in terrorism activity.”

The annual Global Terrorism Index, now in its ninth year, is developed by leading international think tank the Institute of Economics and Peace (IEP) and provides the most comprehensive resource on global terrorism trends. The GTI uses a number of factors to calculate its score, including the number of incidences, fatalities, injuries and hostages, and combines it with conflict and socio-economic data to provide a holistic picture of terrorism.