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Risk trends increasing ten times faster because of coronavirus

A new report has warned that risk trends are increasing ten times faster as a direct result of the coronavirus pandemic.

The paper from global risk consultancy Sibylline demonstrates that the global crisis surrounding the pandemic is being exacerbated by environmental events such as the Atlantic hurricane season and locust plagues in East Africa. The effects of the virus are being further magnified by socio-economic problems caused by the measures taken to combat it, such as wide-spread bankruptcy and mass redundancies, accelerating underlying trends.

Global risk trends increased twice as much between December 2019 and May 2020 as in the entire four-year period before the crisis. Indicators show that 163 countries will see a sharply deteriorating political, security, criminal or governance situation as a result of the pandemic, with a 63 per cent swing towards negative trends.

Security threats are mainly being driven by increases in regional tensions and a steady rise in domestic unrest, with 114 countries expected to see an increased level of agitation.

The conclusion is that coronavirus is turning the world into a far more volatile, complex and ambiguous place in which to live and do business, at a rate higher than is generally yet realised. This will pose rapid future challenges to businesses already struggling to deal with the obvious crisis.  

Justin Crump, CEO of Sibylline and lead author of the report, said: “The findings indicate an impending wave of risk and danger, threatening the recovery of economies and prospects for organisations worldwide. It is not just the pandemic itself that is testing business resilience, it is the second order effects and growing risk across almost every factor that makes for sobering reading.  Timely intelligence is essential for business leaders to cut through the noise, establish likely impacts and mitigate them. As has been shown during the crisis so far, without sound intelligence and the agility to respond, an organisation will not achieve the resilience it needs to survive current or future threats.”

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